Prayut in Japan: Election promise (updated)

Bangkok Post editor Pichai Chuensuksawadi continues his coverage of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's visit to Japan. Yesterday, the Thai PM promised elections would be held at the end of this year or early next.

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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (R) and Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha smile after they gave a press conference at Abe's official residence in Tokyo on February 9, 2015. Prayut is on a three-day visit to Japan. AFP PHOTO / POOL / FRANCK ROBICHON

PM assures Japan of poll

Abe hopes for swift return to democracy

Pichai Chuensuksawadi

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha Monday sent a clear message to the Japanese government, its business leaders and the media that elections would be held in Thailand at the end of this year or early next.

This was a consistent theme laid out by Gen Prayut during his string of meetings, which ended with bilateral talks with his counterpart Shinzo Abe.

At the end of their 45-minute talks, the two leaders issued a joint statement covering politics and security, people-to-people exchanges and cooperation on regional and international issues. Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Mr Abe said he hoped reconciliation would occur and democracy would return to Thailand swiftly.

At the same press conference, Gen Prayut thanked Japan for its concern and reiterated the same message he had given earlier to the Japanese business federation Keidanren – that elections would be held at the end of this year or early 2016.

"I promise that Thailand will return as a strong nation," he said.

During their talks, Mr Abe praised Gen Prayut for his leadership, a government official attending the meeting told the Bangkok Post.

Earlier in the day, Japanese business leaders raised the issue of "a return to civilian leadership".

Gen Prayut assured Mr Abe he had no intention of retaining power, even after elections.

He went into considerable detail about the process, as he had with Japanese business leaders earlier.

Once the charter is completed in September, it will take several months for organic laws to be passed and polls would be held at the end of the year or early in 2016.

All is going according to the roadmap, although martial law is still necessary to maintain order, Mr Abe was told.

Both leaders witnessed the exchange of a Memorandum of Intent (MOI) on future cooperation in developing Thailand's railways.

The MOI was inked earlier in the day between Transport Minister ACM Prajin Juntong and Akihiro Ohta, Japan's Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism.

Although Japan has not officially agreed to fund development of the railway, it has agreed to research and study development of two rail links – Bangkok-Chiang Mai and Mae Sot-Mukdahan.

You can read the full, much-longer story here: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/470406/pm-promises-elections-within-a-year

Monday's story

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha got the red carpet treatment at Haneda airport, Tokyo, when he and his wife Naraporn arrived to begin a three-day visit to Japan. (AP photos/Shizuo Kambayashi)

Prayut takes 'business as usual' message to Japan

Analysis: Abe goes out on a limb to invite the coup leader, but seeks assurances in return.

Pichai Chuensuksawadi

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's meeting Monday with his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe is crucial to both countries, signalling a return to business as usual, while reaffirming — as Thai and Japanese diplomats have put it — the long-standing and "high-quality relationship" between the two countries.

At the same time, however, foreign affairs analysts say Japan is seeking reassurance from Gen Prayut that, in the long term, Thailand intends to return to be a nation of political and economic stability.

Gen Prayut's visit to Japan comes at a time when ties with other key Western partners, while still engaged, certainly cannot be viewed as business as usual following the military coup of May 2014.

His invitation to Japan is the first by a member of the G-7 group of nations and will be watched closely by other members.

For Japan, the decision not only to engage but to embrace the Prayut government is not aimed just at reasserting its role in the region against the backdrop of China's rising political and economic influence.

More importantly, the Japanese government — and more so Japanese business — wants a reassurance from Thailand that the political instability and divisions of the past several years will be resolved and the stable Thailand they have become accustomed to will return.

There is "symbolic, strategic and political value" in Gen Prayut's visit because Japan is a western-style democracy and a member of the G-7, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University.

"Having Japan's acceptance is halfway recognition by Western countries of the military government in Thailand. This trip is about the administration wanting recognition — some acceptance as well as some space," he told the Bangkok Post.

At the same time, Gen Prayut's visit helps Thailand gravitate towards a more balanced and traditional foreign policy posture. Following the coup, China was quick to recognise the Prayut government, prompting concern in Japan.

Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, center, and his wife Naraporn Chan-ocha are greeted by unidentified officials of Japanese Foreign Ministry upon their arrival at Haneda international airport in Tokyo, Sunday, Feb. 8, 2015. (AP Photo/Shizuo Kambayashi)

Former Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan told the Bangkok Post, "The Japanese government and the private sector are looking for assurances and are asking when Thailand will recover politically and economically''.

Gen Prayut is well aware of the need to reassure the Japanese and has taken a personal interest in preparations for the trip. He realises Thai-Japanese relations date back to the Ayutthaya period.

But the key to today's bilateral talks will be economics. With Japan being Thailand's biggest foreign investor (300,000 million baht in 2013) and second-largest trading partner (1.9 trillion baht in 2013), Gen Prayut will assure Mr Abe that Thailand will do its utmost to take care of the Japanese business community.

Domestic Thai politics, especially the recent impeachment of former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, are unlikely to be discussed. However, some discussion of Thailand's roadmap to elections is expected.

While many Thai officials view Mr Abe's invitation to Gen Prayut as an indication that relations are nearly back to normal, others have urged caution.

"This trip should not be viewed simply as competition with the Chinese. Nor should we treat this visit as if relations are back to normal. The current situation is not business as usual," said one senior Thai diplomat.

The initial Japanese response to the May 22 coup last year was concern, and its engagement with Thailand was muted.

Going out on a limb can be risky. Unknown artist

The Japanese government consulted with its allies, especially the United States, and listened to Japanese business sectors before Mr Abe made the decision to invite Gen Prayut to Japan with a full welcome.

"Japan is going out on a limb, politically and economically, by inviting Prayut to visit," said Mr Surin, adding that other G-7 members will be monitoring the visit's key messages.

Japan is a long-time friend, investor and supporter, and it is necessary during this visit that Thailand shows progress in its return to democracy. It should be clear about what benefits Japan can expect.

"Thailand's stability and its future are crucial for Japan. Thailand's message on how it plans to move forward must be crisp, clear and strong," Mr Surin added.

You can read the full story here: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general/469652/prayut-takes-business-as-usual-message-to-japan

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