Air traffic growth in Thailand loses momentum

In 2015 air travel growth less than 2014 post-coup surge & China tour scam crackdown also reduced growth but outlook positive unless oil prices rise again.

AIRPORTS & TOURISM

Air traffic growth loses momentum

30/01/2017
Boonsong Kositchotethana

A slowdown in growth for commercial air traffic through Thailand has been confirmed by newly released figures for the full calendar year 2016.

GROWTH OF AIRPORT PASSENGER THROUGHPUT FALLS BY HALF

Passenger throughput at six main airports, which altogether handled the bulk of civil aviation air movements in the country, grew 10.8% last year, half the pace recorded in 2015.

Aircraft movements, referring to take-offs and landings, in 2016 showed a similar growth pattern, rising 8.58% year-on-year, compared to the 16.6% rate seen in 2015.

REASON FOR FALL: SURGE IN TOURISM FROM PEACE & SAFETY AFTER 2014 COUP

The fall in growth rate provides a little valuable lesson in how one should be careful in reading and interpreting statistics. 

It is not that growth in 2016 was low but that the growth in 2015 jumped and was abnormally high because Thai tourism recovered in 2015.

Thai tourism recovered in 2015 because the 2014 coup made the country more peaceful and safe for tourism or at least that is the way that tourists apparently perceived things.

Or phrased in another way, the stable political environment from military rule rejuvenated the Thai tourism industry and air traffic in 2015.

Expansion in 2016 generally reflected a traditional growth pattern, with the inflated 2015 rate reflecting the subdued pace in 2014.

Thailand's political turmoil, which led to the downfall of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra in May 2014, resulted in very small and marginal 2.53% growth in passenger traffic in 2014 of 90.5 million.

REASON FOR FALL: TOURISM SCAM CRACKDOWN REDUCED CHINESE ARRIVALS 

Growth in 2016 was also held back by the reduced arrivals from China -- Thailand's number one foreign tourist source market -- as the result of a crackdown on tour scams.

The crackdown effectively wiped out 2.27 million Chinese visitors who would otherwise have landed at AoT-run airports during the last four months of 2016, said AoT president Nitinai Sirismatthakarn.

MORE PASSENGERS, TAKE-OFFS, LANDINGS, CARGO

The airports, operated by the Airports of Thailand (AoT), handled 121.7 million passengers last year, up from 109.8 million in the previous year.

There were 790,194 aircraft movements in 2016 versus 727,750 in 2015.

But air cargo movements showed a significant upturn, jumping 7.67% in 2016 to 1.45 million tonnes from the stagnant 0.97% rate achieved in 2015.

Last year's international passenger volumes increased 9.44%, again about half of the 19.9% rise in 2015, to a record 68.4 million.

The domestic passenger tally edged up 12.6% last year, versus 23.2% in 2015, to 53.3 million.

OTHERWISE, ROSY STATISTICS

Except for the gateway airport Suvarnabhumi, other AoT-operated airports registered double-digit growth last year, to the tune of 10-17%.

Due to its capacity constraints, Suvarnabhumi increased its passenger handling by only 5.65% last year to 55.9 million.

Phuket led the passenger traffic growth in 2016 with 17.5% to 15.1 million, followed by Don Mueang at 16.2% to 35.2 million.

Chiang Mai last year saw 12.9% growth to 9.44 million, while Hat Yai registered 10% growth (4 million) and Chiang Rai surged 16.8% (2.03 million).

OUTLOOK FOR 2017 POSITIVE BUT HIGHER OIL PRICES COULD MODERATE GROWTH

Meanwhile, the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) said Asia Pacific continued to see solid growth in demand for international air travel, while air cargo markets showed renewed strength in the second half of the year after a weak start.

Boosted by the widespread availability of competitive airfares and continued expansion in network connections, the region's airlines carried a combined total of 293 million international passengers in 2016, representing 6% growth compared to the previous year...

...The outlook for air travel markets in 2017 remains broadly positive, although an earlier boost in demand spurred by falling oil prices is now behind us, with growth rates potentially moderating...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/tourism-and-transport/1189305/air-traffic-growth-loses-momentum

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